Warm/cool epochs over past 2000 years were regional until 20th century warming

Percentages of earth’s surface experiencing abnormal warm (red shading) and cold (blue shading) temperatures. Shading intensity indicates the magnitude of warmth and cold. a, Annual data. b, 51-year averaged data.

Over the last 2000 years Europe has experienced centennial scale cool and warm epochs including the Little Ice Age (1300 and 1850 CE), the Mediaeval Warm Period (800–1200 CE), the Dark Ages Cold Period (400–800 CE) and the Roman Warm Period (250 BCE to 400 CE). A recent analysis has generated spatial temporal temperature reconstructions covering the entire globe for the past 2,000 years. The research found no evidence that preindustrial cold and warm periods recorded in Europe and elsewhere extended over the entire globe. By contrast, the warmest period of the past 2,000 years occurred during the twentieth century for more than 98 per cent of the globe.

No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era, Raphael Neukom, Nathan Steiger, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Jianghao Wang & Johannes P. Werner, Nature, volume 571, pages 550–554 (2019).

From Our Files

Solar variability less important than greenhouse gases in global warming

Based on the trend that greenhouse gases are increasing rapidly whereas solar irradiance is changing much more slowly, the evidence reveals that the climate impact of changes in solar irradiance are much smaller in magnitude than the increase in warming due to greenhouse gases.

Location of sites used for global temperature reconstruction over last deglaciation Shakun et al Nature

Rising CO2 concentration drove but did not trigger warming during last deglaciation

Global surface temperatures reconstructed over the last deglaciation show that temperature is correlated with but generally lags CO2 concentration. However, at the beginning of the deglaciation a global warming of about 0.3 °C preceded the initial increase in CO2 concentration suggesting that rising CO2 concentration amplified but did not initiate deglacial warming.

Greenland ice core records reveal periods of rapid warming across globe during last deglaciation

Air bubbles in Greenland ice cores are analyzed to compare changes in Greenland surface temperature and atmospheric methane concentration during a rapid warming event lasting 200 years during the last deglaciation. It is found that changes in Greenland surface temperature and atmospheric methane emissions occurred essentially synchronously indicating that this warming event included the tropics.

Evidence for sea level rise of 17 meters in less than 350 years

During the last deglaciation there was several episodes of rapid and substantial sea level rise. A recent study has found that during one of these, sea level rose by about 17 meters over a period that does not exceed 350 years, but could be as low as a century.